Model Application: HIV/AIDS

Futures Group uses HIV/AIDS projections to illustrate the magnitude of the AIDS epidemic and the demographic, social, and economic consequences of the disease.

Elevating priority issues on the policy agenda is an essential component of the policy process. Projections demonstrate to policymakers the range and magnitude of impacts on other areas of development that may result without effective action. The AIDS Impact Model, known as AIM, is a key tool applied by Futures Group experts to generate projections on the expected number of HIV infections, AIDS cases, and AIDS deaths, as well as the social and demographic impacts of the disease.

Key Results

Futures Group used AIM projections in Mali to increase public and private sector commitments to HIV/AIDS priorities. Rather than considering the burden or disease, resources to fight AIDS had been divided through a decentralization process that divided Mali into hundreds of communes. To counterbalance this trend, the Futures Group team trained mayors to use AIM projections to advocate for additional HIV prevention resources in municipal budgets and to raise awareness among locally-elected officials on the urgency of HIV in their communes.

Working with the private sector, Futures Group presented AIM results to firm managers to spur HIV/AIDS workplace initiatives. After attending a Futures Group-led AIM presentation in 2007, managers of Bramali, a major soft drink company in Mali, drafted and adopted company directives on HIV/AIDS.